Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 29.193111 34.743236 40.834125 47.984636 56.117879 65.049557 75.567267
2025-02-09 21.395474 28.841570 37.822291 49.317015 63.492933 80.252129 101.398928
2025-02-16 16.846634 25.053535 35.699286 50.229427 69.221223 92.857870 124.112416
2025-02-23 13.440674 21.822242 33.411206 50.118569 73.034904 102.768817 143.575438
2025-03-02 10.679283 18.855865 30.859538 49.053220 75.107491 110.169654 159.856096
2025-03-09 8.802287 16.801174 29.204606 48.862893 78.095449 118.687849 177.793735
2025-03-16 6.766554 14.070161 26.085158 46.047002 76.911332 121.160181 187.371336
2025-03-23 5.949982 13.242692 25.806763 47.447235 81.902084 132.480913 209.690322
2025-03-30 4.910515 11.796395 24.281028 46.642376 83.376699 138.663668 224.837707
2025-04-06 4.516091 11.510911 24.697834 49.021214 89.915451 152.597715 251.787676
2025-04-13 3.459443 9.645157 22.004942 45.803374 87.173529 152.256332 257.467230
2025-04-20 3.057998 9.105917 21.707984 46.721955 91.229286 162.513997 279.443392
2025-04-27 2.833452 8.996690 22.367469 49.682253 99.353479 180.242088 314.717945
2025-05-04 2.478389 8.499576 22.199507 51.138862 105.096613 194.642269 345.783761
2025-05-11 2.136153 7.938412 21.800125 52.083564 109.966414 207.827280 375.464221
2025-05-18 1.777192 7.218867 20.926876 51.969698 112.874702 217.857906 400.466532
2025-05-25 1.424555 6.392469 19.655531 50.872520 113.837626 224.596149 420.337535
2025-06-01 1.180119 5.815058 18.867618 50.676491 116.432573 234.183040 445.189182
2025-06-08 0.868977 4.866272 16.953066 47.775712 113.538202 234.001312 453.678727
2025-06-15 0.770490 4.669837 16.977603 49.218277 119.287174 249.333394 488.881863
2025-06-22 0.616175 4.171249 16.070862 48.389115 120.370486 256.296572 509.995229
2025-06-29 0.573809 4.147528 16.524183 50.839557 128.336896 276.107292 553.949531
2025-07-06 0.404343 3.416687 14.708157 47.524693 123.989807 272.988955 557.754659